TigerIllustrated.com - Clemson - UVA Preview & Prediction

November 20, 2009

Cris Ard
TigerIllustrated.com Publisher

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All-time series: Clemson leads 36-8-1
All-time series at UVA: Clemson leads 16-5
All-time series at Clemson: Clemson leads 19-3-1
Last Meeting: Clemson 13 Virginia 3 (In Charlottesville)
Dabo Swinney: 11-6 at Clemson (1-0 vs. UVA)
Al Groh: 85-91 overall (59-51 at UVA & 3-8 vs. Clemson)
When: Saturday, November 21
Where: Clemson, SC (Death Valley - 81,500)
Tickets: Available
Time: 3:30pm EST
TV: ABC
Latest Line: Clemson by 21
Clemson Message Boards: Tigerillustrated.com
Virginia Message Boards: Cavscorner.com

Quarterback

Jameel Sewell has been Virginia's primary trigger-man this season. Sewell owns a 6/7 touchdown to interception ratio, and has thrown for 1,568 yards, completing 53 percent of his throws. He's also third on the team in rushing (106 yds, 5 TD).

Kyle Parker has come on strong in the latter half of his red-shirt freshman campaign, and could go over the 2,000-yard mark in this game. Parker has tossed 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions, and has thrown for 1,848 yards. He's completed 54.1 percent of his throws.

Both teams start athletic quarterbacks, and both can run with the football, but Parker is clearly the better passer. The Cavaliers also rank 104 nationally in passing offense. Advantage: CLEMSON

Running Back

UVA lost its top rusher, Cedric Pearman, after last season, and has looked to veteran big back Rashawn Jackson to fill that void. Jackson, who stands in at 6-foot-1, 245 pounds, has rushed for 420 yards and two scores, averaging 5.3 yards a carry. Senior runner Mikell Simpson is second for the Cavs here (286 yds, 4.3 avg., 5 TDs). UVA ranks 110 nationally in rushing offense, averaging just 93.6 yards a game, second worst in the ACC.

Clemson ranks third in the conference in rushing, averaging 170 yards a game. Heisman Trophy Award candidate C.J. Spiller (offered by UVA) leads the Tigers in rushing (836 yards, 6 TDs, 5.5 avg.) and all-purpose yardage. When he's been out of the lineup, talented red-shirt freshman back Andre Ellington has delivered. Ellington is second on the team in rushing (366 yards) and averages seven yards a carry. Keep an eye on sophomore big back Jamie Harper who had a career long 69-yard TD scamper last week in Raleigh. Harper (303 yds) is averaging 4.3 yards a tote. Advantage: CLEMSON

Receiver & Tight End

One of the reasons the Cavs are among the nation's worst teams in passing offense is due to the fact that they lost their top five reception getters following the 2008 season. At one point or another this fall, UVA has started three freshmen here. Sophomore wideout Kris Burd has led the way to this point (24 REC., 323 yds, 1 TD). Simpson also has caught 24 passes for 184 yards, while Jackson has had a part in the pass game as well, and is third in receptions (23) for 193 yards. Veteran athlete Vic Hall (offered by CLEM), who has taken a few snaps under center, has caught 22 balls for 253 yards and a score. Freshman receiver Tim Smith leads this unit in TDs (2). Junior tight end Joe Torchia has 13 grabs for 137 yards.

The Tigers were searching for a No. 2 option behind Jacoby Ford (39 REC., 548 yds, 4 TD & offered by UVA) earlier in the season, and several players have stepped up since, notably tight end Michael Palmer (27 REC., 303 yds, 3 TD & offered by UVA) and junior wideout Xavier Dye (12 REC., 205 yds, 3 TD). Spiller is third in receptions (24), and has averaged 15.9 yards a catch with four scores. Former walk-on Terrance Ashe has 11 catches for 124 yards, and talented freshman tight end Dwayne Allen has two TD catches. Advantage: CLEMSON

Offensive Line

UVA's front returned four starters from last year, but this group hasn't been better than last year's unit that paved the way for just 97 rush yards a game. Moreover, this group ranks 113th in sacks allowed. The leader here is senior right tackle Will Barker (6-7, 320) who comes into this game with 47 career starts. Sophomore guard Austin Pasztor (6-7, 315), junior center Jack Shields (6-5, 285) and junior right guard B.J. Cabbell (6-6, 305) are the other three returning starters. Sophomore left tackle Landon Bradley (6-7, 275) played in just one game a year ago, but is the position's front man this season.

While UVA allows 3.2 sacks a game, Clemson's allowance is half that. The Tigers, which rushed for just 112 yards a game in 2008, are much improved up front down the stretch of the 2009 campaign, and with a majority of the young personnel that was broken in last season.

Junior left tackle Chris Hairston (6-6, 325) and sophomore right tackle Landon Walker (6-5, 305) hold down the edges, while 2008 second-team All-ACC pick Thomas Austin (6-3 ?, 310) is the most experienced player on the interior, working from his left guard position. Dalton Freeman (6-5, 280), a talented red-shirt freshman, has produced a winning grade in all five of his starts at the center position. Antoine McClain (6-6, 320), a sophomore, has been the most inconsistent piece of the puzzle up front, but is becoming more physical at the point of contact. Sophomores Mason Cloy (G/C 6-3 ?, 310 & offered by UVA) and David Smith (T 6-5, 290) have continued to rotate significantly, both consistently producing winning grades as well. Advantage: CLEMSON

Defensive Line

UVA is 45th nationally in total defense, 86th in rush defense, allowing 165.6 yards a game. Senior end Nate Collins (6-2, 290) leads Groh's 3-4 front with 66 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and five sacks. He's also got a pick to his credit. Sophomore nose tackle Nick Jenkins (6-3, 285) has 36 stops, and sophomore end Matt Conrath (6-7, 270) has 34 tackles, four tackles for loss and a sack. This group ranks eighth in the league in sacks (19). Sophomore end Zane Parr (6-6, 275 & 3.5 sacks) and junior nose tackle John-Kevin Doice (6-2, 245 & 2.5 sacks) should play a lot.

Clemson ranks 14th in the nation in total defense, 46th in run defense, allowing 132 yards a contest. Sophomore end Da'Quan Bowers (6-4, 280 & offered by UVA) will play, after missing the last two weeks with a knee injury. Freshman end Malliciah Goodman (6-4, 265, 25 tackles & 2 sacks) also will rotate at the strong-side position. Tackles Jarvis Jenkins (6-4, 310, 52 tackles, 10 TFL) and Brandon Thompson (6-2, 305, 33 tackles & 2 TFL) have provided plenty of pocket-push.

Junior tackle Jamie Cumbie (6-7, 290, 35 tackles, 2.5 TFL) also has been active. Senior end Ricky Sapp (6-4, 240) leads this unit in tackles for loss (10), quarterback pressures (14) and sacks (4). Sophomore end Andre Branch (6-4 ?, 265) has provided an efficient 33 tackles and seven TFL. Advantage: CLEMSON

Linebacker

This group was hit hard with graduation in the off-season, as three starters departed, including second-round draft choice Clint Smith. Freshman inside man Steve Greer leads this defense in tackles (80). Senior inside backer Darren Childs did get in two starts a year ago. He's second on the team this fall in stops (73). Senior outside backer Denzel Burrell started all 11 a year ago (48 tackles). He'll enter Saturday's game with 41 stops and two pressures. Sophomore outside man Cam Johnson played in six games as a true freshman in 2008. Johnson has 31 tackles and two sacks.

Clemson's backer rotation isn't deep, but has remained healthy and productive, led by 2008 freshman All-America pick Brandon Maye (70 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 sacks, 15 QP) who is second on the team in stops. Senior weak-side backer Kavell Conner (63 tackles, 4 TFL, 5 QP), won't come close to his 2008 tackle total, but is having a better season. Kevin Alexander, who has split time at end and SAM backer, has been perhaps the team's best all-purpose weapon, outside of Spiller. Alexander, who also draws work on special teams, has 32 stops and 3.5 TFL. Advantage: CLEMSON

Defensive Back

The Wahoos' pass defense ranks 19th nationally, allowing 179 yards a game, par considering it allowed just 184 a year ago. We like the corner tandem of Chris Cook (32 tackles, 3 INT) and Ras-I Dowling (45 tackles, 3 INT). It should be noted that both stand in at 6-2, 200. Both have combined for 50 career starts. Senior safety Brandon Woods has 33 stops, while sophomore safety Rodney McLeod is fourth on the team in tackles (53). Sophomore safety Corey Mosley (37 tackles) also will get plenty of action in this game.

Clemson's pass defense ranks 12th nationally, allowing 167.3 yards a game, an accomplishment considering this unit has now faced five top 25 quarterbacks (pass efficiency). Junior safety DeAndre McDaniel is the leader here with a team-high 71 tackles and eight interceptions. Both veteran corners Crezdon Butler (offered by UVA) and Chris Chancellor have combined for over 60 starts. And junior corner Byron Maxwell bagged his second pick of the season last week in Raleigh. Junior safety Marcus Gilchrist (offered by UVA) is third on the team in tackles (67), first on the defense in snaps (633). Freshman safety Rashard Hall (49 tackles, 5 INT) has been very impressive this season, and should contend for a starting job in the spring, somewhere. Advantage: CLEMSON

Special Teams

UVA ranks 37th nationally in kickoff return yardage defense, 52nd in punt return yardage defense. Sophomore place-kicker Robert Randolph has hit 15 of 17 field goals, with a long of 49 yards. Sophomore punter Jimmy Howell has no doubt had plenty of practice, and is averaging 40.5 yards a boot on 55 attempts. Chase Minnifield, a sophomore, is averaging 25.1 yards a return, and 4.4 yards a run-back on punt returns.

Clemson ranks 24th nationally in kickoff return yardage defense, 103 in punt return yardage defense. Spiller has been brilliant in the return game, when given an opportunity by the opposition, taking three kickoffs to the house, and one punt return back for a score as well. Spiller averages 34 yards a kickoff return, fourth-best in the nation. Ford also has a punt return for a score. The race - officially - is too close to call at place-kicker between Richard Jackson (17 of 25) and Spencer Benton (1-1), and Dabo Swinney said it could be a game time decision as to who starts. We think Swinney will go with Jackson. Sophomore punter Dawson Zimmerman is averaging 39.7 yards a boot.

It's good news for the Tigers either way in the return game. The Cavs can risk it by kicking to Spiller, or give Clemson excellent starting field position by pushing the kick out of bounds or kicking away from the Heisman contender. Both teams' kicking units have been solid for a majority of the season, though Clemson's has been on the skids in the last two games, not that this match-up will come down to the kicking game. Advantage: CLEMSON

Overview & Prediction

Al Groh brought in five new assistant coaches in the off-season with the hope of turning around a program that has gone south, one that was on pretty good footing when he arrived, thanks to George Welsh, whose success was unprecedented in Charlottesville.

But the Cavs have fallen on hard times under Groh, who's now in his ninth season as head coach at his alma mater. Groh is just 59-51, but is now assured of posting his third losing season in the last four years, fourth overall. It's the first time UVA has faced back-to-back losing seasons in 27 years. The two-time ACC coach of the year also has been dominated by arch-rival Frank Beamer and Virginia Tech, posting a 1-7 record against the Hokies.

UVA did at least have a bowl berth in the balance last week before relinquishing a fourth quarter lead to Boston College.

If the Tigers get up early and ambush this team, which already has very little fire power on an offense that averages just 266 yards a game, it could get ugly fast.

This is a bad match-up for Groh & Co., given that there's very little on offense they're good at. Sewell is not 100-percent, so the Cavs' downfield pass game isn't likely to get on track against one of the nation's top pass defenses.

UVA's defense hasn't played half bad this season, but averages 73 snaps a game, a league worst. The Tigers may eclipse that number of offensive plays tomorrow.

The biggest adjustment offensively for Clemson will come at the center position where Freeman will have a hat over him at all times. But the Tigers' line has been much improved over their five-game win streak, and should be able to establish a running game against what is still a formidable front seven with plenty of size, but one where offensive coordinator Billy Napier should be able to create a few mismatches underneath. Due to the improvement of Clemson's front, Spiller has reached the second level more in recent weeks.

The only way we see the Tigers dropping this one, at home, on senior day, in the final game of Spiller's illustrious career, is if turnovers deep in their territory and special teams miscues give UVA numerous and easy scoring opportunities.

The Cavaliers haven't played in Death Valley in six years, and the two teams won't face one another again until 2013.

Barring something wildly unforeseen, this one will not end well for a UVA team with very little to play for outside of pride. In fact UVA is just 1-5-1 all-time versus a ranked Clemson team in Death Valley, 3-11 against ranked opponents on the road under Groh.

Over the last 10 years UVA is just 2-8 in its final road game of the season, while conversely the Tigers are 8-2 in their last ten home finales. And the Tigers have played some pretty good ball down the stretch in recent years, as over their last 24 November games, Clemson is now 18-6, and an impressive 15-9 against the spread. CLEMSON by 26+

TI staff itemized picks: Cris Ard - CLEM by 27 (34-7), Larry Williams - CLEM by 22 (Clemson 28-6), Ryan Bartow - CLEM by 31 (41-10)

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