TigerIllustrated.com - USC vs. UCLA Preview

January 11, 2009

Still licking their wounds from an unexpected split in the State of Oregon, the University of Southern California Trojans will battle the highly ranked UCLA Bruins (No. 10 AP, No. 7 ESPN/USA Today) this Sunday evening at the Galen Center. Gone to the NBA are sensational freshmen O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love, but there is plenty to be excited about in this, the 227th edition of the "Crosstown Showdown." This Sunday's contest is the first regular season meeting between the Bruins and Trojans this year. USC will travel to Pauley Pavilion on February 4th.

BY THE NUMBERS:

Records: USC (10-4, 1-1); UCLA (12-2, 2-0).
Notable Wins: USC (None); UCLA (None).

Conference Ranks: Offense, Defense, Notable.
USC: 7th scoring offense (72.0 PPG); 5th scoring defense (61.6 PPG); 1st blocked shots (5.7 BSPG).
UCLA: 3rd scoring offense (77.1 PPG); 2nd scoring defense (58.2 PPG); 1st scoring margin (+18.9 PPG).

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

USC:
G Dwight Lewis 16.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG.
F Taj Gibson 15.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG.
F DeMar Derozan 11.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG.
G Daniel Hackett 10.9 PPG, 6 APG.
F Leonard Washington 8.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG (OUT).

UCLA:
G Darren Collison 15.0 PPG, 5.4 APG.
G-F Josh Shipp 11.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG.
G Jrue Holliday 10.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG.
C Alfred Aboya 9.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG.
G Michael Roll 8.3 PPG, 60% 3-point FG %.

NEED TO KNOW:

WASHINGTON UPDATE: USC freshman forward Leonard Washington is listed as "doubtful" for the UCLA game due to a high-ankle sprain suffered on December 22nd in the victory over Georgia Tech. As of Tuesday, he is no longer wearing a walking boot but he has yet to conduct any weight-bearing activities. USC will more than likely "play it safe" with Washington, after rushing guard Marcus Simmons back from a foot injury last season.

TWO OUTTA THREE IN '08: USC gave UCLA one of its two conference losses last season, 72-63, at Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins won the second game, 56-46, and later defeated the Trojans in a conference tournament semifinal, 57-53. For the record, UCLA is ahead of USC in the all-time series, 126-100.

A STREAKBREAKER IN THE WORST WAY: This past weekend saw USC lose to Oregon State in Corvallis, 62-58 in overtime. For Oregon State, it was the first Pac-10 victory in 21 games. Further, the victory was the first time that Oregon State had split with the Los Angeles schools since sweeping USC and UCLA to start conference play during the 2004-05 season.

NEW ADDITION: 6'5", 220-pound sophomore Jordan Cameron has joined the USC basketball team. Cameron, a wide receiver on the Trojan football team, is a BYU transfer who also played basketball for the Cougars during the 2006-07 season.

ON FIRE: UCLA senior guard Michael Roll has been absolutely 'on fire' from beyond-the-arc over his last 6 games, making an astounding 70.4% of his attempts. Roll is shooting 60% from 3-point territory on the season. On the season, the Bruins rank 4th in the conference in 3-point shooting percentage (37.8%), behind California, Arizona and ASU.

LAST TIME OUT:

Last Thursday saw USC dismantle the Oregon Ducks in usually unkind MacArthur Court, 83-62. Dwight Lewis tied a career-high with 26 points for USC and freshman DeMar Derozan had his best game of the season, scoring 14 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. The Trojans ran away with the contest after being tied with the Ducks at the half, shooting 59% from the field during the 2nd frame. Guard Daniel Hackett did it all for USC, scoring 15 points, pulling down 9 rebounds and collecting 7 assists.

On Saturday, Oregon State continued their recent athletic mastery of USC, this time defeating the Trojans in basketball, 62-58 in overtime in Corvallis. The Trojans, who lead by as many as 15 points in the 2nd half, watched the Beavers' Roeland Schaftenaar make good on a 3-pointer from the top of the key at the end of regulation to send the game into the extra period. OSU outscored the Trojans 8-4 in overtime, collecting their first conference win since defeating Washington on February 22, 2007. Taj Gibson lead USC with 15 points and 4 rebounds. Schaftenaar had 18 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists for Oregon State, who confounded USC with their "Princeton" scheme on offense and their steady zone defense.

SIX SHOOTER: SIX KEYS TO DEFEATING UCLA AND A PREDICTION:

Last year, it was USC that had to limit UCLA's second chance opportunities due to the Bruins' rebounding prowess that came in the form of a 4-headed monster (Lorenzo Mata-Real, Alfred Aboya, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Kevin Love). This season, however, it is UCLA that has limit USC and Taj Gibson on the offensive glass. The Bruins are 2nd to last in the conference in defensive rebounding and only one player on their roster is averaging more than 5 rebounds per game (the lone returning front court player Alfred Aboya, 5.5 RPG). USC, conversely, is tied for 2nd in the Pacific 10 in rebounding offense and rebounding margin and Taj Gibson stands at 2nd as well in individual rebounding, trailing only Arizona's Jordan Hill.The Bruins are focusing on rebounding all week according to coach Ben Howland so USC must be aggressive on the blocks and their guards must keep a body on their Bruin counterparts, especially Darren Collison and Jrue Holliday. Both Collison and Holliday are lightning quick and can get to the basket, whether with or without the basketball, in a heartbeat. And you can bet that all 5 Bruins will be crashing the boards this Sunday after the tongue-lashing that they have received this week.

Secondly and congruently, USC's Gibson must stay out of foul trouble. Without the services of the Trojans' other banger (Washington), USC will once again rely very heavily on Taj on both ends of the floor. If USC is to win this game, Gibson must have a 20/10 performance. You can bet though that Coach Howland is going to have more than one body surrounding Gibson at all times. When Gibson is not on the floor or is being denied the basketball when on the court, the USC offense has tendency to grow very stagnant. Often, the USC guards attempt to force the action (e.g., "kamikaze" attacks on the basket through traffic) and turnovers result. Turn the ball over against Collison and the Bruins and your fortunes immediately spiral downward.

Similarly to the immediately preceding point, USC has to get the ball to Gibson in order to thwart the surefire zone defenses that UCLA will employ. The Trojans were hard-pressed to solve Oregon State's 1-3-1 zone this past weekend and Bruins are exponentially better than OSU on the defensive end. The Beavers constantly denied entry passes to Gibson in the 2nd half causing poor shot selection and poor ball movement by USC. Either Gibson must step up and attack the basketball or the Trojan hoopsters must hope for friendly perimeter bounces from the Galen Center rims. Incidentally, USC is 8-0 this season at the Galen center.

Fourth, the Trojans must defend the perimeter. Michael Roll, Josh Shipp and Darren Collison are all capable of extending the defense by knocking down shot after shot from the perimeter, so the Trojans must be responsible in their defensive assignments. If UCLA, who shoots over 50% from the field, is cold from the outside, it could be a long night for the Bruins. Roll is particularly important to focus upon as he has averaged less than 2 points per game in the Bruins' two losses and nearly 10 points per game in the twelve Bruin wins. Expect USC to mix things up considerably on defense and throw a lot of looks at Roll and the other Bruin shooters, employing their triangle-and-2 "Bruin defense" along with straight zone and their trademark man defense.

Fifth, it is all about "turnovers, turnovers, turnovers". There is no doubt that UCLA will pressure USC, in both the full and half court. Coach Howland is well aware of the fact that Oregon State forced countless turnovers and even a 10-second call with their press against USC and the Beavers aren't even half as athletic as UCLA is. If the Trojans are to win this game, all 5 players on the court must help out with relieving the press. When USC is able to break the press effectively and get into their offense early in the shot clock, good things generally happen for the Trojans. Moreover, the Trojans must dribble out of double-teams instead of simply picking up the basketball against the Bruins, who are an excellent trapping team. Moving the ball around on the perimeter will be essential.

Finally, someone other than the usual suspects must step up for the Trojans. The most likely candidates are senior forward Keith Wilkinson, who has a penchant for making big shots, and senior UConn transfer guard Marcus Johnson, the lone bright spot for USC against Oregon State. Both of these players must look for their shot on offense if the Trojans are to win.

PREDICTION

Despite the lack of a true post presence on offense, the Bruins manage to score and do so at an alarming rate. Simply put, UCLA's roster is riddled with pure scorers. If USC allows open looks at the basket for the Bruins, the Trojans will lose and do so by double digits. However, if USC can get a hand in the faces of the Bruin shooters and take full advantage of the Bruin rebounding ineptitude, the Trojans will keep this contest very close. To win, USC must have at least four players (preferably the entire starting lineup) in double figures in scoring, most notably Dwight Lewis, who has struggled in three of the four Trojan losses. In the Trojans three best performances on the season (at Oklahoma, vs. Georgia Tech, at Oregon), four to five players have scored 10 points or more. However, asking for this against a Ben Howland coached team may be asking for too much, especially considering the other factors (rebounding, low turnovers) that must be in USC's favor for a Trojan victory. The Trojans have been stewing all week and will come out on fire in front of the Galen Center crowd but in the end, the Bruins will likely prevail by a narrow margin.

UCLA 67 USC 63

Comments? Please email to trojansjay@yahoo.com .

FEATURED PRODUCT