TigerIllustrated.com - Middle Tennessee Preview

September 4, 2009

Cris Ard
TigerIllustrated.com Publisher

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All-time series: Clemson leads 1-0
Last Meeting: 2003: Clemson 37 MTSU 14
Dabo Swinney: 4-3
Rick Stockstill: 17-20
When: Saturday, September 5
Where: Clemson, (SC) - Death Valley (81,500)
Tickets: Available
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
TV: NONE (Available viewing on ESPN360)
Latest Line: Clemson by 18.5-19
Clemson Message Boards: Tigerillustrated.com
Middle Tennessee Message Boards: GoMiddle.com

Quarterbacks

After seven starts under center as a true freshman in 2007, 5-foot-10, 204-pound Dwight Dasher returns to the quarterback position. He did post an impressive 9/3 TD/INT ratio in '07, and rushed for 674 yards. Dasher is no stranger to Clemson personnel. Clemson reserve defensive tackle Rennie Moore Jr. sustained a compound fracture in a jamboree game prior to his junior season in high school. The injury occurred after intercepting a screen pass against Folkston (GA) Charlton County. The player that delivered the season-ending tackle to Moore Jr. was Dwight Dasher.

13 days into fall camp Dabo Swinney publicly named Kyle Parker, a red-shirt freshman, his starting QB, following a much publicized off-season race that wasn't really that close. The former four-star recruit is still a freshman, with no Division I-A game experience. In fact, Parker hasn't been tackled in a game since January of 2008. But according to Swinney, the former Elite 11 participant has good command of the offense, makes very few mistakes and is able to quickly recover when committing errors.

Parker is the better talent, but given that he has never played in a game, and the comparison is drawn against a third-year junior who has seven starts under his belt, albeit two years ago, we'll call this a push. Advantage: EVEN

Running Backs

The last time Middle Tennessee averaged over 200 yards rushing a season was seven years ago, with a high point since of just 145 rushing yards a contest in 2003. The Blue Raiders averaged just 107 rushing ypg in 2008. Senior back Phillip Tanner is expected to shoulder the load for the second straight year. He did rush for 714 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, so there was some production on the ground here, especially later in the season versus North Texas (237) and Louisiana (167). Tanner in fact won national player of the week honors after scoring six times versus N. Texas.

Clemson returns Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Spiller at back. Spiller averaged 5.4 yards a carry in 2008. He'll be joined in the backfield by Jamie Harper, a 6-foot, 225-pound sophomore with plenty of power and speed. Harper worked sparingly a year ago, behind James Davis, but is expected to be the other side of Clemson's one-two punch this season, with a few starts in some personnel groupings. Andre Ellington, a red-shirt freshman, also will play a lot in 2009, and will float from the backfield and the slot for much of the season. Advantage: CLEMSON

Wide Receivers

The Blue Raiders return most of their receiving corps from a year ago. Middle Tennessee averaged 242 passing yards a game, accumulating a significant amount of that production while attempting to mount comebacks in its seven losses. Patrick Honeycutt (51 rec., 513 yds, 3 TD), Malcolm Beyah (33 rec., 550 yds, 6 TD & 3rd team Sun Belt) and Desmond Gee (recruited briefly by Clemson out of high school, but was not officially offered) headline this group.

Clemson averaged 218 passing yards a contest in 2008. Jacoby Ford, a senior and one of the fastest players in college football, returns here after catching 55 balls for 710 yards and four scores last season. The Tigers have some good talent, like Marquan Jones, Jaron Brown and Brandon Clear, but between the three there's just six career receptions. Xavier Dye, a junior and Terrance Ashe, also a junior, will start Saturday. Both are expected to be pushed by their respective backups (who have more talent) in the coming weeks. The Raiders' tight end corps will not be a factor in their passing game. Clemson senior tight end Michael Palmer (30 career catches) and promising red-shirt freshman Dwayne Allen are expected to contribute here.

Middle Tennessee has notably more experience at wideout but we don't see a lot of yardage in the free-wheeling zone posted against the Tiger secondary. For Clemson, its ground attack will be the focal point of its game plan in this matchup. Clemson has the edge in talent, but behind Ford, there are just 26 career receptions total in the Tigers' receiving corps. If this comparison were drawn later in the season, we'd give the Tigers the edge. But entering week one, the Blue Raiders have several developed, experienced wideouts game ready. And no one player in Clemson's receiving corps, beyond Ford, has done anything in a game yet. Advantage: MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Offensive Line

With 99 career starts back, Middle Tennessee has one of the nation's most experienced offensive lines. But this group wasn't great a year ago, and on the edges there could be in trouble in this game, given Clemson's personnel at defensive end. Middle Tennessee's left tackle, Mike Williams, is just 6-foot-2, 258. Mark Fisher, a junior right tackle, is 6'3, 290, but was a third-team Sun Belt pick a year ago. Mark Thompson, the only senior up front, is the most experienced player by far, with 31 career starts. The Blue Raiders average 6-foot-3 2/3, 286 pounds.

Clemson's front averages 6-foot-5, 313, and returns 72 career starts. Thomas Austin, a senior and a top five center prospect in next spring's NFL Draft, was a second-team All-ACC pick in 2008. 6-6, 320-pound sophomore right guard Antoine McClain might be the most talented front man on the Tigers' offense and is coming off an exceptional off-season. Chris Hairston, easily this unit's top tackle, and Cory Lambert, a fifth-year senior, will start at left and right tackle respectively. Mason Cloy, a sophomore, nailed down the center spot in early August. He logged 660 snaps as a red-shirt freshman last season. Advantage: CLEMSON

Defensive Line

The Blue Raiders did improve their run defense a year ago, allowing 154 yards a game, after surrendering an average of 200 per contest in 2007. But two starters are gone from last year's front. Middle Tennessee will start 6-foot-3, 232-pound (DE) Jamari Lattimore and Chris McCoy (6-4, 245) at end, while Brandon Perry (6-1, 277, and offered by Clemson in high school) and Dwight Smith (6-2, 263) will get the nod inside. Perry, who has fought weight issues, tallied just 14 stops a year ago. Smith started 10 games in 2008. Lattimore, a junior college transfer, made one start a year ago.

Clemson's front embodies four former national recruits, headlined by five-star ends Ricky Sapp and Da'Quan Bowers. Sapp, who tore his ACL last November, has been outstanding this off-season, according to Clemson's coaches, and quickly and affirmatively answered questions about his knee in week one of camp. Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson are back inside after combining for over 700 snaps a season ago. Senior end Kevin Alexander and junior tackle Jamie Cumbie should get plenty of work in tomorrow's game as well. Advantage: CLEMSON

Linebacker

Clearly the weak link of a Blue Raider defense that returns six total starters from 2008. Middle Tennessee lost two starters at backer following the 2008 season. The lone returning starter here is veteran MIKE backer Danny Carmichael, a third-team Sun Belt selection a year ago, who led his team in tackles (89). Cam Robinson, a senior, will start at the weak-side position, and has just under two-dozen tackles for his career. Antwan Davis, a junior, also has very little career production, with just seven stops the last two seasons.

Clemson returns two of three starters from its linebacker rotation - Kavell Conner, a Butkus Award watch list member, who led his team in stops (125) in 2008, and Brandon Maye, a freshman All-America pick, who tallied 87 tackles last year. The SAM position could get little to no work tomorrow night, considering the Blue Raiders' spread attack. When the SAM is used, Scotty Cooper, who has six career starts, will be the go-to man. Advantage: CLEMSON

Defensive Back

Middle Tennessee allowed 213 passing yards a game a year ago, and loses just one starter from its secondary. Junior free safety Jeremy Kellem, a 2nd-team Sun Belt selection in 2008, has 17 career starts and picked off two passes last season. Kevin Brown, the Blue Raiders' starting strong safety, started the last 10 games in 2008 and was fourth on the team in tackles (68). Alex Suber, a senior, has 21 career starts at cornerback. Rod Issac, a junior, started seven contests last season at corner. Backup corner Marcus Udell (offered by Clemson in high school) is listed as the No. 2 LCB entering this weekend.

Clemson's secondary ranked 12th in the nation in pass defense a year ago, allowing just 173 passing yards a game. It marked the fifth consecutive year the Tigers held opponents to an average of less than 200 yards passing a game. Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, both Thorpe Award candidates, bring 56 starts, over 3,000 snaps, over 170 tackles and 18 interceptions to the table. Marcus Gilchrist, a junior, who will be the front man at free safety, and Byron Maxwell, the No. 3 corner, would start for most teams in the country. DeAndre McDaniel, a junior strong safety, moves to the secondary after eight starts at SAM backer in 2008. Despite the off-season losses, Clemson is again expected to have one of the nation's top defensive back rotations. Advantage: CLEMSON

Special Teams

Alan Gendreau, a sophomore, hit on 10 of 14 field goals a year ago and will again serve as the Blue Raiders' starting place-kicker. His career long is 44 yards. David DeFatta, a Marshall transfer, posted a 32.2-yard net average last season and returns as the starting punter. Honeycutt and Gee will again be the primary punt return options, while Gee and Tanner will be the featured (kickoff) return men. Gee averaged 19.4 yards a (kickoff) return a year ago. Middle Tennessee ranked 66th nationally in kickoff return coverage defense (Clemson #47), and finished 77th in the nation in punt yardage defense (Clemson #52).

Dawson Zimmerman, a sophomore, started for the Tigers versus Alabama in the season opener a year ago. Zimmerman, who may have more potential than any other player at his position at Clemson in over a decade, would have started more games in 2008, but battled an early season hamstring ailment. Richard Jackson, a former PARADE All-American, will get the starting nod at kicker, coming off a very strong second half of fall camp. Spiller and Ford remain the primary return men, both giving the Tigers a homerun threat. Spiller averaged 27.2 yards per kickoff last year (#14 nationally), including a touchdown versus the Crimson Tide. The Tigers were able to improve on coverage issues last year under special teams coordinator Andre' Powell. Advantage: CLEMSON

Overview & Prediction

Rick Stockstill is just 17-20 in three seasons at Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders have been a competitive program during that stretch. Stockstill took over a program with 70 scholarship players to begin the 2006 season, but managed to guide the Blue Raiders to their first ever bowl game and first winning season in five years.

Stockstill, who served as an assistant coach at Clemson from 1989-2002, is one of nine staffers for the Blue Raiders who have ties to the Tiger program.

During Stockstill's three seasons in Murfreesboro, Middle Tennessee is no stranger to exceeding expectations against teams from the ACC and SEC. In 2006 the Blue Raiders were 22-point underdogs to Maryland in College Park, but trailed 17-10 minutes before the start of the fourth quarter, ultimately covering, with a 24-10 loss.

In 2007, Virginia was a 10-point favorite, and traveled to Johnny Red Floyd Stadium, carrying a four-game winning streak on its back having just defeated Duke, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. The Blue Raiders took UVA into the fourth quarter deadlocked at 14, and nearly pulled off the upset, dropping a 23-21 decision to the Cavaliers.

And last season Middle Tennessee dropped Maryland by 10 points at home, after going into that matchup a two-touchdown underdog. The Blue Raiders also covered versus Kentucky (18 pt. underdog), losing 20-14 in Lexington and Mississippi State (10 pt. underdog), losing 31-22.

Under Stockstill, Middle Tennessee is an impressive 9-5 against the spread versus non-conference opponents.

Stockstill has 15 starters and 44 lettermen returning to a team that does draw winnable home games versus Memphis, Western Kentucky, Florida International, Louisiana and Arkansas State.

For Clemson, it returns 15 starters and 52 lettermen from a Gator Bowl squad that battled back in the latter half of 2008 under then interim head coach Dabo Swinney, after beginning the season ranked inside of the top 10.

Clemson finished 18th nationally in total defense a year ago, but may be improved on that side of the ball in 2009, provided the starters in its backer rotation stay healthy.

Offensively, bettering last year's 25.2 point per game mark should be there for the taking, but the Tigers are in no position to absorb injuries at left tackle and wide receiver.

Ultimately football games are decided depending on which team wins the majority of its matchups, makes the most plays and commits the fewest mistakes. Clemson isn't expected to lose any matchups in this one, but will have to key on getting containment on Dasher, whose propensity to scramble should to some extent slow the Tigers' pass rush.

Offensively, Clemson's coaches won't ask Parker to win the game. The key for Parker, who will make his share of plays, is to minimize mistakes. How far the Tiger offense goes in 2009 will hinge largely on how many or how few mistakes Parker makes as a first-year player.

Middle Tennessee should have a difficult time controlling the line of scrimmage in this game, given the lack of size and experience in its front seven. The Tigers have more fire power, superior team speed and athleticism at every position. Across-the-board depth and ultimately more playmakers are why the Tigers are expected to win this game.

The Blue Raiders began Division I-A football in 1999, and since that time have been in a total of 33 games versus teams from the ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and PAC 10. Their record ? just 4-29.

Under Stockstill, Middle Tennessee is 7-9 against the spread as an away underdog. Swinney has been favored at home as a head coach just twice ? versus Duke and South Carolina in 2008. The 39-year old was a perfect 2-0 straight up and against the spread in those matchups.

And Clemson has won its last five home openers, while conversely it should be noted that Middle Tennessee is just 2-12 in its last 14 road openers. Clemson by 20.

TI staff itemized picks: Cris Ard - CLEM by 22 (35-13), Larry Williams - CLEM by 21 (34-13), Ryan Bartow - CLEM by 17 (27-10).

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