TigerIllustrated.com - Georgia Tech Preview & Prediction

September 10, 2009

Cris Ard
TigerIllustrated.com Publisher

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All-time series: Georgia Tech leads 47-24-2
All-time series in Atlanta: Georgia Tech leads 41-13
Dabo Swinney: 5-3
Dabo Swinney vs GT: 0-1
Paul Johnson vs. CLEM: 1-0
Paul Johnson: 117-43 overall (10-4 at GT)
When: Thursday, September 10
Where: Atlanta, Ga. - Bobby Dodd Stadium (55,000+)
Time: 7:30pm ET
TV: ESPN
Latest Line: Ga. Tech by 5-5.5
Extra: TI's In-game Thread | TI's Weekly Podcast: 15th Edition
Clemson Message Boards: Tigerillustrated.com
Georgia Tech Message Boards: Jacketsonline.com

Quarterback

Josh Nesbitt was 6-for-11 passing a week ago in Georgia Tech's opener, and for an efficient 141 yards. Nesbitt completed just 44-percent of his throws last season and the Yellow Jackets averaged just 99 yards passing, which ranked 116th nationally. But the objectives Paul Johnson has for Nesbitt differ greatly from any other head coach in the conference, as Nesbitt is by far the most qualified QB on Tech's roster to lead its option attack.

Kyle Parker, a red-shirt freshman, had not played in a game since January of 2008 before getting his first college action last week. And he passed his first test, completing nine of 20 passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Parker admitted he was a bit "jacked up" at the outset of the game when he committed one overthrown pass, and he also threw a dart into double coverage into the end zone that could have been intercepted. But by and large, the first-time starter performed well. The question is how does he respond in his first road test? Clemson's coaches piped in crowd noise into practices this week, but communication could still be an issue.

Parker is the better talent here, the better passer, but has just one game under his belt, whereas Nesbitt, a junior, and a significant part of Tech's rushing attack, having tallied nearly 700 yards on the ground in 2008, has been in several statement games for Tech. Advantage: GEORGIA TECH

Running Back

Tech averaged 273 rushing yards a contest last season, fourth nationally. A major reason why was due to ACC Player of the Year winner Jonathan Dwyer (offered by Clemson), who accounted for 1,395 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 6-foot, 228-pound back didn't break a sweat a week ago, rushing for 95 yards on just seven carries. Keep an eye on another Tech big back, Anthony Allen (offered by Clemson), who also has very good speed and power. The Louisville transfer talked briefly with Clemson's coaches after leaving the Cardinals.

C.J. Spiller (offered by Georgia Tech) rushed for just 12 yards on four carries last week, but got much of his work done on the first play of the game, courtesy of a 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Spiller sat out the second half as a measure of precaution, after tweaking a hamstring and injuring a toe. Jamie Harper (offered by Georgia Tech) and Andre Ellington picked up the slack here, rushing for 147 yards on just 24 carries.

On the ground production to date swings in Tech's favor here. But from the standpoint of collective talent and depth at running back, Clemson has an edge. And the Tigers are expected to have some success on the ground against the Yellow Jackets' depleted front four, which lost three NFL draft picks after the 2008 season. Advantage: EVEN

Wide Receiver & Tight End

Demaryius Thomas was the Yellow Jackets' leading receiver a year ago (39 catches, 627 yards), and was the benefactor of a hitch-and-go on Chris Chancellor in last year's meeting between the two teams, according to Chancellor the only time in his college career he has been beaten. Thomas hauled in 101 yards receiving on just four grabs a week ago. Johnson likes to get his backs involved in the passing game and does have the personnel to throw more this season, so Allen and Dwyer (209 yards receiving in 2008) should compliment Thomas. Kevin Cone, a junior and a transfer from Shorter College, is a walk-on, but is slated to start.

Clemson senior wideout Jacoby Ford redeemed himself last week with three catches for 70 yards and a score, as well as a 61-yard punt return for a TD, after dropping three balls. Marquan Jones also caught a TD pass and hauled in two catches for 70 yards. Xavier Dye, a junior with just 11 career catches, dropped a crucial third-and-long pass, and the following night lost his starting job to Brandon Clear, a sophomore and a former US Army All-American, who has held on to the position throughout practice this week and is expected to start. Clemson didn't get its tight ends involved in the passing game a week ago, but may have a few winning matchups to set up its tight ends tonight. Advantage: CLEMSON

Offensive Line

Clemson's front four handled an undersized offensive line a week ago, but will face a different animal this week. Tech still managed to pile up over 330 yards rushing in its opener. The biggest concern is at tackle. 6-foot-2, 257-pound Brad Sellers will make his second career start, while Austin Barrick, at 6-foot-3, 284, will make his fifth career start. Keep an eye on backup tackle Nick Claytor (offered by Clemson), who started five games at tackle last season. Guard Cord Coward is Tech's most experienced o-lineman. He was also a second-team All-ACC pick in 2008. Joseph Gilbert, a sophomore guard, started 12 games a year ago. Junior center Sean Bedford is set to make his second career start.

Clemson returns four starters from last year's unit. (LT) Chris Hairston, (LG) Thomas Austin and Mason Cloy (offered by Ga. Tech) received winning grades last week. Sophomore right guard Antoine McClain and senior right tackle Cory Lambert did not. Lambert will again start tonight, but will split much of the game with Landon Walker, a sophomore, who plays with more functional strength and is more productive in run-blocking, which the Tigers figure to do plenty of against Tech's inexperienced front.

We expect Clemson's front five to play better this week, but collectively Tech's front is more experienced and its body of work to date has been more productive. Advantage: GEORGIA TECH

Defensive Line

Tech was hit hardest here in the off-season, losing NFL draft picks (DE) Michael Johnson, (DT) Vance Walker and (DT) Darryl Richard. Derrick Morgan, who was second on the team in sacks (7) a year ago, returns, and the junior edge-rusher also is an NFL prospect. 6-foot-4, 273-pound Jason Peters (one career start) and 6-2, 275-pound Ben Anderson (two tackles in 12 games in 2008 & one career start), a native of Aiken, will get the nod inside. Opposite of Morgan is Robert Hall (one career start).

Clemson's front four could be the best in the ACC. Da'Quan Bowers (nine career starts & offered by Ga. Tech), Jarvis Jenkins (13 career starts), Brandon Thompson (2 career starts & offered by Ga. Tech) and Ricky Sapp (23 career starts) are the Tigers' most highly regarded d-line in nearly two decades.

The Tigers will have their hands full in this one, but have the horsepower and depth up front to go four rounds with the Yellow Jackets. And it should be noted that the Tigers did hold up relatively well against Tech's option attack a year ago. This front is improved over last year's group, while Tech's starting five aren't quite as strong, particularly at tackle. Advantage: CLEMSON

Linebacker

Sedric Griffin, a Winnsboro native and an underrated outside backer, has 12 career starts and was the fourth-leading tackler on last year's defense. Middle man Brad Jefferson tallied 24 stops last year. Keep an eye on true freshman backer Julian Burnett, an undersized inside backer at 5-foot-10, 220, but with plenty of punch. Burnett led the Yellow Jackets in tackles (9) a week ago.

2008 Freshman All-America pick Brandon Maye (13 career starts) was the ACC Player of the Week at his position last week, after 14 tackles and one INT. Last week Kavell Conner, the leading tackler here (125 stops) in 2008, got just one snap in Kevin Steele's DIME package, which was utilized virtually the entire game to facilitate winning matchups versus Middle Tennessee's spread. Scotty Cooper, who like Conner, was relegated to sideline duty, by design, last week, should be back at the controls at the SAM position this week, and will split time with (DE) Kevin Alexander, who pulls SAM duty in some of Clemson's sup-packages. Advantage: CLEMSON

Defensive Back

Georgia Tech's pass defense allowed 193 yards a game a season ago, and projects to be improved this fall. The ringleader of this unit is junior rover-back and third-team All-American Morgan Burnett (offered by CLEM). Burnett had a pick last week. Junior (CB) Mario Butler will make his 15th career start. And sophomore (CB) Jerrard Tarrant is back this fall after serving a suspension last season. 6-4, 208-pound free safety Cooper Taylor started three games last season as a true freshman (70 tackles). He made six stops a week ago, and was called out by Dabo Swinney on Tuesday, along with Burnett, as a player Clemson's coaches had been impressed with in film evaluation.

Clemson's pass defense ranked 12th nationally last season and may be improved this fall. DeAndre McDaniel, the most physical player here and arguably the best player on the Tiger defense, delivered several big hits from his strong safety position last week, while also grabbing 14 stops and a pickoff. Senior corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, both Thorpe Award candidates, bring over 3,000 snaps and nearly 60 career starts to the table. Marcus Gilchrist, a junior free safety and Byron Maxwell, the most physical corner on the Tigers' roster, will be factors in this game. Rashard Hall, a red-shirt freshman safety who made 13 tackles a week ago, isn't expected to be in on 70 plays for the second straight week, and will likely log half that total. Advantage: CLEMSON

Special Teams

Scott Blair is again Tech's returning place-kicker, after hitting 12 of 19 field goals a year ago (long of 39). Blair also handles kickoffs. Chandler Anderson, a sophomore, managed a 41-yard average on six punts last season. Anderson is the Yellow Jackets' front man at punter this fall. He popped two punts a week ago for a 51-yard average. Tarrant, Allen and Orwin Smith, a freshman A-back, are Tech's return men. Tarrant ran a punt return back for a 68-yard score last week.

Clemson peeled off two returns for scores last week. Spiller, who ranked 14th nationally in kickoff return yard average a year ago, is again joining Ford as the Tigers' primary return men. Butler, Harper, Gilchrist and Ellington also are in that pool. Richard Jackson nailed three of five a week ago, including a 44-yarder. And Dawson Zimmerman hit three punts in the opener (43 yd average) with a long of 51 yards. The Tigers' coverage units also have been improved over the last 14 games, following significant problems in this area in 2006 and '07, prior to Andre' Powell being named special teams coordinator. Advantage: CLEMSON

Overview & Prediction

Paul Johnson has elevated Georgia Tech's football program, and has done so in a very short amount of time, guiding the Yellow Jackets to a nine-win mark in 2008, just the second time that feat had been accomplished in Atlanta since 2000.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to contend for the Coastal Division Title this season, and justifiably so with 17 starters returning from last year's Chick-fil-A Bowl squad.

Last year Johnson caught Clemson at a perfect time. The Tigers, which had gone into the year ranked #9, stumbled out of the gate with losses to Alabama, Maryland and Wake Forest, and five days before Tech and the Tigers met in Death Valley, ten-year head coach Tommy Bowden resigned under pressure.

Swinney shuffled staff assignments, and immediately went to work on Tech, showing a few new offensive wrinkles in a game that was the sloppiest of the year, offensively, and understandably so. The Tigers, a two-point underdog in that game, rushed for just 51 yards (Spiller did not play), committed six turnovers, but still managed to take a 17-14 lead into the fourth quarter, with Tech scoring what would be the game winning touchdown inside of six minutes to remain, walking away with a 21-17 win and a cover.

And Tech owns Clemson in the all-time series, holding a 47-24-2 edge (all games played in Atlanta up until 1974). The Yellow Jackets also have won two in a row and four of the last five.

The Tigers got in plenty of work for Tech's option attack in the spring and summer, spending almost a week (in successive days) during the middle of fall camp on the Yellow Jackets exclusively.

Clemson's defense fared well against Johnson's flexbone attack a year ago, and we think will be better equipped for Tech's ground attack tonight, given the abundance of off-season work put in, and the returning personnel on defense that faced the Yellow Jackets in 2008. Moreover, we think the Tigers' running game will get on track against Tech's vastly inexperienced defensive front.

Oddly, despite Clemson's unranked status, and Georgia Tech holding a No. 15 ranking and set to play this game in its home stadium, the opening line here was just 3.5 points, with a push throughout the week that now has the spread at 5-5.5 points.

History does suggest this game could be that close, given that 10 of the last 13 meetings here have been decided by five points or less. And Clemson is due for a road win over a ranked opponent, which hasn't happened since the Tigers upended No. 9 Florida State three years ago.

It should be noted that over the last 10 years, Clemson is an impressive 8-2 straight up in its ACC openers. Also, in its last 16 games as a road underdog, Clemson is 10-6 against the spread.

And lastly, and perhaps amazingly, over the last 20 meetings between these two teams, the underdog is a stellar 17-3 against the spread. Clemson straight up.

TI staff itemized picks: Larry Williams - CLEM by 4 (Clemson 27-23), Cris Ard - CLEM by 2 (Clemson 23-21), Ryan Bartow Ga. Tech by 15 (24-9)

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