When the start of college basketball season meets the last few weeks of football, storylines are plentiful, and that is especially true in Oakland right now.
There is a huge weekend of Pitt sports on tap beginning tonight, and we get you set for all of it in this week’s 3-2-1 Column.
THREE THINGS WE KNOW
A Friday night Brawl
It should be a lively evening on Pitt’s campus tonight. The undefeated Pitt basketball team hosts rival West Virginia for an 8:00 p.m. tip to highlight things, but No. 1 Pitt Volleyball is also in action, hosting No. 22 Florida State in another key ranked on ranked matchup at Fitzgerald Field House starting at 5:00.
Pitt has won eight matches in a row and is undefeated at home this season, and of course that match is sold-out already, so pull out your phone or tablet and follow along with that one, and start buying tickets to go see the Panthers a little earlier.
But let’s get it going here, because tonight is the Backyard Brawl for crying out loud. Tonight will mark the 191st time Pitt and West Virginia will meet on a basketball court, with the Mountaineers holding a 101-89 all-time edge.
Before I talk about the game and the rivalry, I’m going to go on a bit of a rant here. If you were so inclined to watch one of the greatest and most heated rivalries in college sports tonight…sorry, you’re out of luck. This game will not show up on your TV guide, and is being reduced to the ESPN online app.
I know both teams missed the tournament last year, but come on now. The powers at the world wide leader or the ACC couldn’t slip this on ESPNU or, you know, the ACC Network? Well, sorry, the conference’s main channel is showcasing the big American and North Carolina game at 8:00 p.m. instead.
I’m sure that will be a dandy, but I digress.
As for the game itself, it is a big one, and a measuring stick type of matchup for the Panthers. Jeff Capel’s team has won its first three games by margins of 40, 15, and 19 points this season, so they have not exactly been tested much to date. While West Virginia was only picked to finish 13th in the preseason Big 12 poll, this game should be a bit more difficult than say, Gardner-Webb.
The Mountaineers are 2-0 on the year, with victories over Robert Morris and UMass on the season. West Virginia is starting five newcomers, as new head coach Darian DeVries is trying to build things up in Morgantown. The star player is his son, Tucker DeVries, who is averaging 17.5 through two games and has over 1,900 career points after a successful three seasons at Drake.
Following the demise of the old Big East, Pitt and West Virginia decided to renew the basketball rivalry in 2017 as a non-conference matchup, and the Mountaineers won the first five meetings, usually with little resistance from the Panthers. That changed last year with a Pitt 17-point win in Morgantown, fueled by an epic shooting performance from Blake Hinson.
I think Pitt, and Capel, sort of needed to get over that personal WVU hump. Now that it happened, Pitt is the program in a better position entering this campaign. The Panthers seem more established, as DeVries looks to get things resurrected after the ugly divorce West Virginia had with former coach Bob Huggins.
This is not the defining game of the season or anything for either side, but it is still important. Tonight might not be the big primetime, nationally televised matchup the Brawl used to be, but it still meaningful to these schools. A win here can create some momentum, as Pitt starts to make its case to the nation that it is a top-25 caliber team, and as West Virginia looks to outperform its preseason predictions.
Plenty on the line, even if you have to watch it online…
A season turned sour
Perception is everything in college football. For instance, if I told you in August that Pitt would be 7-2 heading into a big nationally televised showdown at home with Clemson, most Panthers’ fans would have taken that outcome before I finished the sentence.
As we know, the feelings are a bit different these days. Pitt raised its own expectations by starting 7-0, and also crashed their own success by losing back-to-back games. The feelings are subdued around Pitt football, as the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff dreams are all but dashed.
It’s not just that the team lost two games, but it’s the manner in which it happened. SMU is a good team. There is no shame in losing to a top-15 caliber team on the road, but being uncompetitive was a bad look. Following it up by losing to a .500 Virginia team at home, a game in which Pitt was favored by a touchdown, made it even worse.
Now the Panthers are staring down two ranked opponents, and the team has not really played all that well in about a month. When you consider all of that, there is a bit of a deflated feeling for what should undeniably be a big game.
How did it get here? It’s hard to say, really. Were the Panthers punching above their weight earlier this season, and now they are just reverting back to the mean? Or did the team totally drop the ball altogether?
I think it might be a little bit of both.
The Panthers were pretty terrible in 2023, and had enough holes and question marks going into the season that had their projected win total by the oddsmakers was around 5.5. It was all feel good energy when the team was 7-0, but I also think there is a fine line between winning and losing in college football.
I think the gap between 3-9 to 6-6 and 6-6 to 9-3 is closer than some may realize. In high-level football, you are bound to play in a lot of one-possession games, and how you handle those situations defines a good team, and also a successful season. I mean, even that awful, terrible, no-good 3-9 team from last season was probably only a few plays away from being .500.
And this awesome, great, exciting 7-0 team that started this season was also probably closer to being 4-3 just the same. It comes down to details, execution, and as cliché as it sounds, luck. As Pat Narduzzi said on Monday in his press conference after losing to Virginia by five points aided by a controversial call, maybe the luck had to run out at some point.
Remember that 28-27 Cincinnati game back in September? Remember the Bearcats were penalized for something called ‘disconcerting signals’ that kept Pitt’s game-winning drive alive? Yea, sometimes a call like that can shape the outcome of a game for the better, and also for worse, like what happened over the weekend.
I am still shaping my opinions on what I think of this season in the grand scheme of things, but in the present, it’s been bad of late and there is little denying that. Nobody on the team or coaching staff should be excused for their poor performances in recent games.
Pitt’s offense averaged 317 yards per game in 2023, and over the past four games the Panthers netting 313. It’s plain ugly from an offensive standpoint, and it’s a tough way to live depending on the defense that is good, but not elite, and the team is reaping the results they have been sowing.
Clemson on deck
Now a win, well, a win can change a lot. Because remember, perception is everything in college football. There is no better fix to sinking season than a victory, and a ranked win can quickly alter the tone around a program in a hurry.
Obviously, the challenge will be great tomorrow afternoon for Pat Narduzzi’s team at Acrisure Stadium. Clemson is very good, like usual, and it will be a similar matchup the Panthers have faced over the years when they’ve squared off against the Tigers.
Since joining the ACC, Pitt is 2-2 against the top program in the conference. The wins include a memorable 43-42 upset in 2016 and a 10-point victory the only time Clemson has played in Pittsburgh back in 2021. Of course, a pair of blowout losses in 2018 and 2020 are mixed in there as well.
This current Clemson team is very much in the mold of how Dabo Swinney usually likes to build his squads, with a four and five stars up and down the roster. That talent is developed in-house with zero help from the transfer portal. Some feel Swinney’s reluctance to use the transfer portal has been a detriment to the program, and maybe it has, but when you get good quarterback play with a talented roster, it can mask a lot of things.
Cade Klubnik is living up to his five-star billing this season after having an up and down 2023. The former five-star is up to 24 touchdown passes through nine games, more than he had in all of last season. Klubnik has a bevy of weapons at his disposal like bruising tailback Phil Mafah, speedy wide receiver Antonio Williams, as well as the reliable Jake Bringingstool at tight end.
Defensively, the Tigers have an embarrassment of riches with seemingly every contributor on the defensive line being a former top recruit. Massive Peter Woods is an anchor inside that the Panthers’ struggling offensive line may have difficulty blocking. Plus, defensive end TJ Parker is a menace off the edge.
Clemson’s linebacker trio may be the best in the league highlighted by former All-American Barrett Carter, leading tackler Wade Woodaz, plus Sammy Brown, who is likely the top true freshman in the conference defensively.
The Tigers usually overwhelm teams with talent, but they have been knocked off twice this season. Clemson was blown out by Georgia in the opener in the only game it was not the more talented team.
Two weeks ago, Louisville was able to steal a 33-21 win over Clemson in Death Valley, not an easy feat to take down the Tigers in front of their home crowd. Interestingly enough, Clemson out-gained Louisville in that one, but the Cardinals used some special teams magic, a tough running game, and did not turn the ball over to outlast mighty Clemson.
When looking at what Louisville did to knock off the Tigers, it’s hard to see Pitt replicating it, especially given how the team has performed in recent weeks. Pitt’s jumbled offensive line may have trouble moving that Clemson wave of five-stars on the defensive line.
I’m not sure this particular passage of the 3-2-1 column eased anyone’s tensions for tomorrow (Sorry!) but it’s hard to deny Clemson is a very good team, and even if Pitt had shown better signs of life lately, it would not change that fact.
TWO QUESTIONS WE HAVE
Can Pitt pull an upset?
Let me play devil’s advocate a bit here. If Pitt were to pull the upset tomorrow at Acrisure Stadium, it would change the scope of the season significantly and keep Pitt’s small chances somewhat alive to make the ACC title game next month.
Through the years, this Pitt program has been no stranger to upsets. One of the most memorable ones was against this very Clemson team back in 2016. Plus there is 13-9, the Kenny Pickett Miami game, along with a few more.
The Panthers are not as decided of underdogs tomorrow as they were in some of those past memorable upsets, but I still think it would be a big surprise for Pitt to stop the bleeding and pull a win tomorrow given the recent circumstances around this team.
Let’s face it, Pitt’s offense has done very little for about a month. It would be an upset in its own right if things suddenly got back on track tomorrow against a defense the caliber of Clemson’s.
Still, there’s history to consider.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt has defeated at least one ranked opponent for eight straight seasons, even last year when the Panthers shocked Louisville at home. Pitt will have two chances to keep that streak alive over the next two weeks.
But what exactly is the recipe for an upset tomorrow? Looking back at Louisville’s win over a Clemson a few weeks ago, there’s not much to take there. The Cardinals blocked a couple of kicks and just matched Clemson toe to toe physically with a strong running game.
Right now, Pitt’s running game is reeling, and a lot of it has to do with the a reshuffled offensive line. Desmond Reid is always capable of breaking a big play any time he touches the ball, but if Holstein is indeed a game-time decision like Narduzzi said yesterday, then Clemson might just stack the box not fearing Nate Yarnell and the passing game as much. Leading receiver Konata Mumpfield was injured last week, and it remains to be seen if he will be ready for tomorrow, yet another strike against the Panthers and their potential upset bid.
The strengths Pitt can point to is the defense and special teams. The Panthers have arguably the best kicker in the country in Ben Sauls, so that’s a nice insurance plan if the offense stalls, because they can still walk away with points on some possessions.
But if the upset is going to occur, I think the path here is doing it with defense.
The Panthers have arguably the top defensive playmaker in the ACC in Kyle Louis. He is the only defender in all of college football with 70+ tackles, five sacks, four picks, and 11 TFLs. Louis is having a special season, one that is worthy of All-American consideration.
We’ve seen him and this whole unit do some special things this year. The ‘Sharks' movement was a real thing for a while, and if they can create momentum against Clemson early, then that could keep the Panthers engaged here.
Obviously, it’s hard to expect, or even ask, for another five-turnover game from this side of the ball, but at least there is precedent there with what Pitt did against Syracuse. This has always been an opportunistic defense under Narduzzi, and tomorrow they are simply going to need to create as much chaos as possible.
Not long ago, this Clemson game was circled as perhaps one of the biggest of the Narduzzi era. It lost its luster along the way, but somewhere in that Pitt locker room is the same group that started 7-0, they just have to figure out a way to get that team to show up tomorrow.
How good is Pitt hoops going to be this season?
It’s still too early to call how good this Pitt team can be after only three games. Pitt was picked to finish seventh in the preseason in the 18-team behemoth of a league that is now the ACC.
The Panthers have cruised to three double-digit wins over mid-major opponents. Nothing has happened to suggest they are swinging above or below their weight just yet. Still, there appears to be some good trends from this team early on that makes me think this could be the best Pitt team in over a decade plus.
For starters, good guard play can take you a long way in college basketball. Pitt has had a highly productive backcourt for two seasons now, and the 2024-25 version might be the best yet. Jaland Lowe is performing at a high level, Ishmael Leggett has elevated his play from last season, and Damian Dunn appears to have fit into this team seamlessly.
When you look at when Pitt has been at its best in recent seasons, it largely has come when three guards on the floor. I think the Panthers are going to be a ‘tough guard’ for opponents all season, simply because Lowe and Leggett almost always dictate the tempo and are pretty fearless attacking the basket. Most opponents won’t be able to contain them both for 40 minutes.
The one area that hasn’t been quite as good is the outside shooting, though I think that will come. Pitt shot poorly against Gardner-Webb and I see that being more of an aberration than a trend.
Pitt has certainly upgraded inside it seems. Cam Corhen has reached double figures in scoring in all three games, more than the two double-digit point games the Panthers got from their starting center a season ago.
Plus, there are still moving parts.
Can Amsal Delalic be the big piece some (Chris) expect him to be? Will Brandin Cummings also evolve as a freshman and hit his stride? Is Zack Austin’s elite defense and athleticism going to translate across the whole season?
I’m willing to bet a few of these things turn in Pitt’s favor this season, to aid in the strong guard play. This is a really good roster, and even after three games, I don’t think I’m getting ahead of myself either. They have options everywhere. There are basically seven guys who could theoretically lead the team in scoring on a given night.
That’s a lot of firepower.
I still want to see what it looks like when the competition picks up, and we’ll get a taste of that tonight in the Brawl. But all I’m saying is, to answer the question, I think Pitt can be a top 25 caliber team this season, and crack those national rankings sooner rather than later.
ONE PREDICTION
Pitt wins by double digits in the Brawl
If Pitt is going to take that proverbial ‘next step’ as a program, then starting the season better has to be a goal for this team. The Panthers have spent the past two seasons ‘on the bubble’ when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament, and that’s not exactly a fun place to be.
It can be stressful when every game from mid-January through Selection Sunday is nearly a ‘must-win’ situation. Part of the reason Pitt has experienced those uncertainties the past two seasons is because of some bad early season losses.
I mean, you hate to start thinking in these terms already, but it is a simple reality. The NCAA, the NET rankings, the tournament selection committee, the national pundits are all kind of down on the ACC these days.
Pitt won’t get the same benefit of the doubt as an equal team from the Big 12, SEC, or the Mountain West…
Pitt’s slogan, or mantra this season is ‘Leave no doubt’ which is obviously in reference to the team feeling like it should have made the NCAA Tournament a year ago, but was one of the first four teams left out of the field.
Well, if you want to leave no doubt, then beating a West Virginia team picked 13th in the Big 12 with a first-year head coach at home has to be part of the plan. The Panthers are a 7.5-point favorite, and although rivalries can level the playing field, I believe Pitt can and will win by double figures this evening.
