CLEMSON -- In the months after Graham Neff made it clear that Brad Brownell had to make the NCAA Tournament this season to keep his job, this mind started thinking of scenarios that might make the decision more difficult.
And for a while, the hypothetical that stood out above others:
What if they're just pretty good during the season, doing enough to get into the NCAA Tournament, but then go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament and then, say, lose to a lower-seeded team in the first round of the NCAAs?
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You know, exactly like they did two years ago when they went to Greensboro and lost as a 5 seed (to 13th seed Miami) and then to Indianapolis and lost as a 7 seed (to 10 seed Rutgers).
Then what? How would Neff and Clemson's administration reconcile the undoubtedly sour taste from that scenario with the fact that Brownell met the standard set forth?
As it turns out, reality has given us a picture that was almost impossible to envision before the season started:
A team that's really, really good, even captivating. A group that's fun to watch, one that has racked up a list of wins and distinctions that put it in rare company against the backdrop of a mostly meager basketball history at the school.
But also a team that comes along in the age of the NET rankings, which punish the occasional bad losses this team has suffered to South Carolina, to Loyola and to Louisville.
The first loss seems almost inexplicable at first glance, but probably less so when you consider that was PJ Hall's first game back after a totally lost offseason and he wasn't anywhere close to full strength that night in Columbia.
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The latter two are an example of a normally good shooting team having a really off-shooting night every now and then, as Clemson took 45 3-pointers and missed 38 of them in those games.
But the NET ratings don't take those nuances and ebbs and flows into account. They are what they are, and everyone knows it's just part of the deal.
The perfect scenario for Clemson in Greensboro this week would be for the Tigers to cut down the NET by cutting down the nets on Saturday.
Go win the whole damn thing. Eliminate the questions by eliminating the competition in that rare year when the thought of Clemson walking away with an ACC Tournament title doesn't seem far-fetched at all.
But what about the here and now as we all are evaluating this 22-9 and 14-6 team and its accomplishments relative to the expectations?
Let's go back to something Brownell said last April, as he held a press conference to reflect largely on Neff's assessment after a 17-16 season.
"I know there’s a level of some frustration with us and our program with wanting more, and wanting more, and believe me the guy who wants it most is me. ... I think we’re closer than some people think, but there’s also a level of consistency and competitive spirit in our program that should be a little bit more admired by some people."
And then: "I'm incredibly excited about next year, optimistic. I just think we have a chance to have a special season."
That consistency and competitive spirit has indeed blossomed in a special way this season. Nine of Clemson's school-record 14 ACC victories have come by double digits. Five of the wins were by 20 or more points.
Brownell is more of a realist than, say, Dabo Swinney. In the past that has produced the perception that he's maybe too pessimistic at times in evaluating his team.
Not so this year, when a number of different variables have combined to produce a team and a group of personalities he'll always treasure.
Even when three consecutive losses brought negativity from the outside, and howls that they wouldn't be able to turn it around and it was time for a change, Brownell kept it positive with his team. He reminded them they were a really good team, and he said even the best teams have rough patches every now and then.
They rebounded with a 40-point thrashing of Florida State. And not long thereafter they went to Raleigh and stomped N.C. State by 25.
"Doing it with great kids and doing it the right way is unbelievably impressive," Brownell said. "I'm just really proud of this group. It's been a fun group to coach -- and, to be honest with you, watch.
"They've played some marvelous basketball this year."
In some ways you could argue all the stars aligned this year, that it'll be hard to translate this same high-level play and spirit to next year without Hunter Tyson and Brevin Galloway.
Yet there's a strong feeling on the inside that both Hall and Chase Hunter will be back. Additionally, Alex Hemenway is planning on returning according to our intel.
Now combine that with the current freshman class that has more upside than most others we can recall over our two decades of observing this program.
And then sprinkle in the possibility of the staff working some portal magic to find a solid, game-changing piece in the same fashion they did a year ago in identifying and landing Galloway.
When you're in the athletics director's chair and you're carefully evaluating a coach, sometimes it's less about metrics and numbers and more about what you see and feel.
This program looks and feels like it's in really good shape right now.
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Neff's messaging a year ago created the impression that Brownell's job is hanging in the balance as the team prepares for tonight's game against N.C. State still supposedly needing to do more to secure an NCAA appearance.
But the coach, the team and program have sent a months-long message that brings a bit of a reevaluation of what it would take for Clemson's administration to go in another direction.
Based on our information, it doesn't feel like NCAA-or-bust for Brownell.
It feels like he's going to be back next year.
And it feels like the right call.
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