Florida State (0-2) takes on Memphis (2-0) on Saturday afternoon in Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles are looking to jump start their season against a Tigers' team that has been predicted by most experts to be the AAC Champion at the end of the year and compete for a spot in the CFB Playoffs.
As we do each week, the Osceola staff offers their thoughts on what will be the keys to a Florida State win on Saturday.
Bob Ferrante
Until we see it, leadership: Perhaps this is stubbornness, but I remain convinced that the majority of FSU's issues are on the mental side and not the talent or physical. Let's start with leadership but also listening, communicating well and trusting that teammates will do their job.
Find the strength: Going into the preseason, we thought the Seminoles would dictate via the run game, pressure the quarterback and play well on special teams. Hey, we got one right. FSU is capable of strengths, beginning on offense by not dropping back 42 times (42!) and committing early to the ground game. The defensive linemen also have a chance to pressure a drop-back passer, although Seth Henigan is one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in the college game.
Prediction: Memphis 27, Florida State 24
Pat Burnham
Stopping the run with less defenders: Memphis will try to run the ball on FSU because the first two teams the Seminoles played were ultra successful doing so and the Tigers are coming off a game vs. Troy where they rushed for over 200 yards. However, what Memphis really does well is throw the ball. Their QB, Seth Henigan, has thrown for over 3,300 yards in each of the last three seasons. And he likes to spread the ball around. Ten Tigers have caught passes already this season. They will try and spread the FSU defense out and spread the ball around. Memphis has thrown the ball 60 times this season vs. 55 running plays The Seminoles have had a hard time stopping the run when they knew it was coming and had extra defenders in the box or at the LOS. Can they slow down Memphis on the ground while not putting themselves at a disadvantage defending the pass? Henigan is not much of runner so the Seminoles can afford to play man coverage and leave an extra defender in the box. But make no mistake about the key for an FSU win on the defensive side of the ball will be the play of its defensive line and linebackers vs. the run because the secondary will have to defend the pass in this game more than they have the previous two games. Memphis' offensive line is inexperienced so this should be a matchup on paper that FSU wins.
Who is FSU: Florida State must find its identity on offense and maybe the bye week has given Mike Norvell and his offensive staff the time needed to drill down and find things that the personnel they have on offense can do well time and time again. Coming into this game, FSU's offense has no identity. On paper they have more size and speed than the Tigers. However, there isn't any one position group on offense that has played well so far this season. Everyone on the field for FSU on offense has step their game up. The staff, with two games and fall camp under their belt, should have had time to figure out how to operate effectively on offense with DJU at quarterback. FSU will have played 25-percent of its game by the time the game on Saturday ends. This highly paid coaching staff needs to prove it can scheme up a win for a struggling offense. If they have found themselves over the last two weeks, they will walk away winners, if not it will be more of what we have seen.
Games aren't played on paper, however, and while FSU may the more talented roster, they aren't playing well as a team when it counts, on Saturdays. The team that is playing the best and playing together coming into this game is Memphis. That is what the film tells you. But I still have had a hard time getting a grasp on how I think this game might play out and that may be simply because I can't wrap my head around this team starting 0-3. That being said, I am in a "show me" state of mind. I will believe it when I see it.
Prediction: Memphis 29, FSU 23
Jerry Kutz
Do your job: Play your assignment with effort and trust the guy in the trench next to you. Mike Norvell has seen players making mistakes in games they don't make in practice and thinks the team is pressing on gameday. Pressing shows up as a receiver cutting a 10-yard route off at eight yards for example or a defender abandoning his gap to try to help a gap over, or a player wanting not to make a mistake instead of wanting to make a play. Norvell used the bye week to work on the details of assignment in route depth, making sure the 11 defenders are disciplined in their run and pass fits. Choose a position and the focus has been on assignment and effort.
Communication and leadership: On a podcast this week with Tom Block and Keith Jones we talked about the loss of leadership from 2023 to 2024 and Keith, a former safety on the 1980 team, made an astute point about basic leadership. If one of the guys on the field with you isn't getting it done, you need to let him know. Even if it's loud and with a red face, you need to hold each other accountable.
Master the basics: Make a higher percentage of the layups and the passion will return. When there's a wide-open receiver in the end zone, the quarterback must complete the easy pass. When the quarterback is accurate, catch it. When a teammate causes a fumble, fall on it. Opposing quarterback throws it right to you, intercept it, make those simple plays and you'll see the passion, the excitement and the fun return. Maybe it's pressing but each of the past two games, we've seen a number of talented FSU players have golden opportunities to make a simple, routine play that would have scored or stopped points. Not only are those simple play the difference between winning and losing, but those simple plays will also trigger the celebration and the fun this team and its fan base can feed from.
Prediction: I would rather have a root canal than pick against the Seminoles.
My concern is identity. While the Seminoles labor to establish an identity, 23 of the Tigers' 24 starters are redshirt juniors or older, and led by a fourth-year starter at quarterback. FSU’s superior, yet individual talent, must start playing as a team if it is to beat a veteran squad, and make this prediction better than it feels.
FSU 28, Memphis 27
Curt Weiler:
Show some fight: There are many things FSU has lacked through two games this season. Perhaps the most discouraging is that the Seminoles haven't appeared to put up much of a fight or been the aggressor much early this season. Saturday's game, where FSU has an even bigger talent advantage on paper than the first two games, would be a nice moment to change that. Improved play on both lines, taking advantage of opportunities and some synergy between the offense and defense would go a long way. I'm not saying the season is on the line this weekend vs. Memphis, but sitting at 0-3 would put salvaging the season in serious jeopardy.
Start fast: Running back a key from last week that didn't go according to plan. FSU never led against Boston College. FSU has led for a grand total of three minutes and 32 seconds through its first two games of the season. If FSU is able to start fast, build and maintain an early lead against Memphis, I think that will go a long way for the confidence of this team. On the other hand, if FSU again finds itself in an early hole, I worry about how the game will play out.
Prediction: Florida State 28, Memphis 24
Mark Salva:
This last week there has been more pop-psychology pontificated throughout the FSU beat than at a late-breaking session at the American Psychological Association convention (including me). Everyone has an opinion on what is going on with this FSU team and what is behind this unforeseen 0-2 start. More importantly, everyone has a solution about how to fix it. From throwing the QB to the curb, firing coaches and benching players or whole position groups (pick one). In my experience, the answer has to lie within the ones that are in that locker room in this moment in time. The roster is what it is. No one is more frustrated than the coaches and players and its incumbent on the leadership of the team (both players and coaches) to find the way back. Now, typically in this space we all focus on the micro of the game, the tactical. Considering current circumstances, I'm focused on the macro, the strategic picture. It's not about Memphis, it's about FSU. This is what I'm looking for:
Offensive Identity: Going into the year, conventional wisdom was that this team would rely on a veteran OL and stacked RB room to run the ball to set up the passing game and give it time to develop. It hasn't gone that way for a lot of reasons that I won't get into again but running the ball 16 times vs BC is not what anyone envisioned. The OL must play better. A quarterback's best friend is a strong running game. Think back to when DJ Uiagalelei was at Clemson and beat us, it was the running game that allowed him to be his best. It's not all on OL but they haven't helped their cause. Better fundamentals, better effort and better schemes to mitigate the way teams are playing us. And skill guys must start making plays. Of course, the QB but not just DJ, receivers need to get open and backs need to make people miss and pay for taking risks loading the box. They don't have to force it. The opportunities will be there. They have been there. What are the things that these guys can execute consistently? What can they hang their hat on and build on? Can this offensive group pull-up their big boy pants and impose their will on Memphis? It really isn't about Memphis, it's about FSU.
Defensive Leverage: In a nutshell, line up correctly, be where your supposed to be, and don't let formation and scheme let you lose your leverage. Defense more than offense is reliant on everyone doing his job. It starts with lining up right and then applying appropriate technique based on the keys that manifest after the snap. I don't care what scheme you run, or defense called, every call/scheme has strengths and weaknesses. Good players often overcome the weaknesses in a scheme and that’s the wild card that having good players gives a team. In the absence of playmakers, being sound in alignment and technique can overcome a lot of sins. Oh, and chase the ball with uncommon effort. Oh, and get off blocks. Oh, and tackle. The last two on that list comes down to ability. The first two is just attitude and effort. Let’s start there.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Memphis 23
Charles Fishbein
Run the Ball: Through two games FSU has rushed 47 times for 119 yards and two touchdowns. They are averaging 2.53 yards per carry. On the other hand, their opponents have rushed 88 times for 453 yards with a 5.15-yard average. FSU is going to have to turn the tables this week and get back to running the football. When FSU runs the ball well they win games under Mike Norvell.
Short Leash: DJU is on the clock, and it is not because some team is getting ready to draft him in round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft. He must perform early and often. FSU needs for DJU to have a good game, or it may be time for Brock Glenn to get the call. Even if DJU does well, Glenn needs to get some snaps. For FSU to win, DJ will have to come out and light up Memphis this weekend.
Stop the run: FSU needs to run the ball well but the rush defense needs to figure it out. Their defensive ends must actually set the edge this weekend. FSU's defense could set the tone. If they are able to stop Memphis rushing attack and force them into long passing downs, FSU wins the game.
Turnovers: Through two games FSU's defense has not created a turnover. I had to look it up multiple times because that has to be a mistake. FSU has to force some turnovers. The way to get your offense going is to create turnovers, give the offense the ball on a short field and make them pay for their mistakes. FSU has yet to win the turnover battle through two games. That is a big reason why the Seminoles sit at 0-2.
Final Thoughts: Football is supposed to be fun. Whatever FSU has done the past two weeks has not been fun. This team needs to get back to playing winning football. An early turnover and a lead first on the scoreboard would go a long way for FSU confidence. They took the lead early against Georgia Tech and allowed them right back into the game. If FSU can get a lead and force Memphis into some mistakes the Noles will leave Doak with a 1-2 record come Saturday night.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Memphis 21
Nick Carlisle
Pressure on Henigan: Ignoring the fact that stopping the run will continue to be a key to victory for this football team for the rest of the year, this week it's fairly important that you get pressure on Memphis' fourth-year QB. Henigan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in every start that he has had for the Tigers (39) and this offense is the most potent passing offense FSU has seen. How the secondary stands up being tested is a separate question, but it doesn't matter how well they play if the Florida State defensive line cannot generate pressure. Florida State will be in an uphill battle if they let Henigan sit in the pocket and dot them up.
Find Balance Offensively: At some point this Florida State teams needs to find out who they are offensively, and this week is a good opportunity to do so. It wasn't FSU's only problem last week against Boston College, but DJ was throwing too often and too early. This week there needs to be more balance offensively and the running game deserves a chance to find its feet. Six rushing attempts for 21 yards in the first half last week seems like a misprint but it was the reality. If Florida State is going to get in the winning column this week, the entire show needs to step up. Better play calling, better execution, better balance — and if things aren't going well early, better quarterback play.
Prediction: Memphis 23, Florida State 21
FSU fans seeking improvements to gameday experience will see it Saturday
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